The first place to look to understand why the newspaper business in the United States has fallen on such hard times is the headlines. The headline for this story had me in a coma before I got to the word “exaggerated.” Headlines are indicative of how the quality of newspapering has sunken to depths lower than the Marianas Trench.
First of all, I have been through my share of hurricanes. They are frightful bitches. Tropical storms are not much less frightful. These species of weather events can make you see the wisdom of believing in the Almighty.
The story starts out and gives us a couple of the journalistic pantheon of: “who, what, where, why, when.” The first graph ends in the hysterical sobs of “…we’ll never know the final death toll.” We will never know the final death toll because in those areas hardest hit they do not believe in accurate record keeping when it is nice outside, let alone when the land all around has been flattened by a hurricane. At least they do understand the importance of getting the corpses disposed of before corruption and disease set in. Record keeping doesn’t seem so important when you are struggling to keep the living, living.
Then the story launches into a hateful screed on Matt Drudge because he had the temerity to question NOAA’s published weather information. When I lived on the gulf coast I always assumed that the NOAA was full of shit because they were trying to predict something they did not have the knowledge to predict. I understood that whatever I saw from them would be as accurate as if I put my ear to the palm tree in my front yard and listen to it sing the secrets of weather.
It is obvious that the writers of this article did not understand that Matt was baiting them into doing something stupid like writing this screed. After finishing this article I understood they did not even realize they had fallen into his trap. What a bunch of maroons.
Why do I think the writers of this article fit the definition Bugs Bunny gave for maroons? First their initial response to Matt Drudge’s question is to bring ad hominem attacks on Matt Drudge’s person. Yep, that really answers Matt’s question, doesn’t it. What is “The Washington Post,” a newspaper ran by a bunch of junior high students? I expect better from adults.
The second reason is the data the writers used to support their claim that NOAA’s published information on Hurricane Mathew was accurate. Only one of the data sets presented had anything to do with Hurricane Mathew. The first data set was “Wind Speed from a High-resolution Hurricane Model.” Guess what maroons, that has nothing whatsoever to do with answering Drudge’s question. The next data set is for Hurricane Joaquin for the time frame of 28 September to 7 October….2015. This chart only supports Drudge’s claim. When the plot line is above almost every single data point then I am going to question the accuracy of your models. In this graph the highest predicted wind speed is about 135 knots (I do wish everyone would just go metric!) on October 4th. There is only one data point above that plot line. The majority of the actual data is lower than 100 knots. I scratch my head, “Lucy you got some ‘splaining to do.” Hey, what can I say? I thought Ricky Riccardo was about the coolest man on earth.
Then we get into a discussion about why we can not believe actual data. Puh-lease. If your actual data can not be trusted then you need to fix how you acquire your data. If you do not believe your actual data then you can not calculate “fudge” factors and call it sacred. If you do this then you have fallen into the GIGO of computing. Garbage in, garbage out. No wonder the predicted models are so wobbly.
Finally we get some data on Hurricane Mathew. I was wondering if Hurricane Mathew data was ever going to be used in this story on Hurricane Mathew. This data is from a buoy somewhere in the “central Caribbean Sea” with a time frame from 00:00 September 29 to 00:00 October 4th (GMT). I’m cool with using GMT as a time stamp. It is how we know everyone is talking about the same time. Of course there are weasel words about why we can not believe this data. “…sheltering effect and sub-optimal placement,” even though it also says “…Hurricane Mathew passed almost directly over a buoy…” NOAA estimates the “official intensity” at 115 knots even though the recorded intensity was 65 knots. Don’t you just love science! Data doesn’t matter unless we say it does! Jiminy Cricket! No wonder we can’t get any predictions right. Instead of fixing our measuring techniques we just fudge the effing data!
After the data sets have been presented we get a bunch of hand wringing about how difficult it is to do the hard work of science. Yes, science ain’t easy. Fudging science is easy. It is why they do it. Quite frankly, I am on Matt Drudge’s side in this argument. Nothing the writers of this article have written supports their contention that NOAA’s published information for the public is accurate. Wind speed just may reflect the amount of energy that is in a hurricane system and when the measured peak velocity is 65 knots but you fudge factor that and claim that it means 115 knots you have almost doubled the amount of energy in that system. And that is if that increase is a linear function. I do think it is at least a place to start thinking about the implications. Is this science? I think the needle is wavering on the “No” side of the Yes/No meter.
As I said, science is hard work and humans are by nature lazy, blind and deceitful creatures. That is why so much science is shown to be wrong almost as soon as it is published. Instead of weaseling your way by fudging the data, how about getting us some accurate effing data?